Thabo Mbeki's new age of denial

02 February 2007
A week before President Thabo Mbeki’s State of the Nation address, his “age of hope”, trumpeted in last year’s speech, is at risk.

Despite 96 straight months of economic growth his recent dismissal of concerns about of two of South Africa’s most pernicious social ills -- crime and corruption -- have undercut public confidence in his presidency.

An “age of denial”, HIV/Aids, unemployment, crime and corruption now threaten his legacy.

“Where is the age of hope?” asked Florence Nkwashu, a resident from Shawelo, Soweto. “The only hope we have is if the people take things into their own hands. I don’t know where it’s going to end. We are so tired”.

In an interview flighted on South African Broadcasting Corporation television three weeks ago, Mbeki said it was just a perception that crime was out of control.

“It’s not as if someone will walk here to the [television] studio in Auckland Park and get shot. That doesn’t happen and it won’t happen. Nobody can prove that the majority of the country’s 40-million to 50-million citizens think that crime is spinning out of control,” he said.

Asked about recent reports implicating a number of South Africans in a British police probe on corruption between British arms companies and foreign government officials, Mbeki said the bidding process for South Africa’s arms deal was “perfectly correct” and not affected by corruption.

Analysts are divided about whether Mbeki’s recent bout of denials can be equated to his HIV/Aids quackery at the turn of the century in which he fatally refuted the scientific link between HIV and Aids. They agree, however, that his rebuff of crime and corruption combined with South Africa’s recent delay in publishing the African Peer Review Mechanism report, have seriously weakened public trust in his leadership.

“He hasn’t been any more of a denialist in this case than any other leader. All leaders defend their record,” said Richard Calland, executive director for the open democracy advice centre at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa. “But any leader who lacks empathy with his or her people [demonstrates] bad politics.”

Xolela Mangcu, a visiting scholar at the Public Intellectual Life Project at the University of the Witwatersrand and a non-resident WEB DuBois Fellow at Harvard University, said Mbeki’s recent comments “add to a whole series of different kinds of denial that have characterised his leadership. They have fed into the belief that he is out of touch with South Africans.”

Presidential gainsay
The oddity of the president’s remark about crime is that it came a week after the ANC had issued its January 8 statement vowing to dedicate resources and energies to fight the scourge of crime.

“Without decisive action to curb crime, it could undermine our efforts to ensure the country is able to realise its social and economic potential,” the statement said.

According to Mangcu: “When Mbeki is not reading from a script, he feels the need to defend the government and its policies. He needs to stick to the script to avoid these kinds of contradictions.”

The anomaly in the furore over Mbeki’s denialist comments is that crime statistics support him.

According to the South African Police Service’s crime figures for the financial year ending March 2006, crime levels have consistently decreased over the past three years. The total for the 21 most serious crimes (including murder, rape, house robbery and car hijackings) increased by 7% between 1994 and 2003. Since then, however, overall crime levels have dropped by an average of 6% a year.

It is believed that Mbeki circulated a document containing these statistics at the ANC Cabinet lekgotla last month, to demonstrate that, although crime was a problem, it was not out of hand.

Mbeki apparently told the lekgotla that the crime issue was being hijacked by reactionary forces to undermine the democratic movement. The president is said to have expressed his concern about how negative messages about crime were being communicated. It is believed he argued that part of the reason for the uproar about crime was that it was increasing in affluent areas, which had been regarded as safe for many years.

Why the uproar?
So why the public uproar over Mbeki’s comments?

Centre for Policy Studies analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said it appeared Mbeki wanted to enter into an academic debate about the realities of crime, based on statistics at his disposal, as against perceptions of crime.

“What the president is unaware of is steady convergence of opinion on crime, particularly since the Jeppestown shootings last year. Crime is becoming increasingly deracialised as more people become angry over its effects,” said Matshiqi. “It seems to me the president feels that the perceptions of increasing crime are incorrect as viewed against the information he has. But that is significant only for debate.

“The reality is that the levels of crime in this country are unacceptably high. That is what the president should be focusing on; giving leadership instead of winning narrow points.”

According to Antoinette Louw, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, “The response of police leadership has left the public with a sense that the government, and the police in particular, don’t care about the problem or its consequences.

According to Idasa and Afrobarometer public-opinion surveys conducted last year almost half (48%) of South Africans believe that all or most police officials are involved in corruption.

“We feel so pathetic. Our kids come home with stolen goods and what can we say if Mbeki is denying crime?” asks Rebecca Mtimkulu, a resident from Meadowlands, Soweto. “I’ve been travelling with the ANC my whole life and they’ve done nothing [for me].”

Jenny Foden, who lives in Bryanston, Johannesburg, said: “The problem in South Africa at the moment is not so much the crime, it’s that we all feel so alone on the issue of crime. The perception, whether rightly or wrongly, that crime is out of control is fed almost entirely by the denial of the government.”

A besieged nation
Next week Mbeki faces a besieged nation. Only 40% of South Africans think the government is doing enough to reduce crime, according to a Markinor bi-annual government performance barometer survey conducted among 3 500 people in November last year. This has dropped from 51% a year ago.
Mbeki prefaced his State of the Nation address last year with a list of surveys that captured the “age of hope”. This year, the same surveys paint a much bleaker picture.

Last year, Mbeki quoted a Gallup International survey, which ranked South Africa eighth on a “top optimists” list of 12 countries. This year, South Africa hasn’t made the list.

Last year, the Grant Thornton International Business Owners Survey reported that 84% of South African business owners were optimistic about the following year. This year the figure has dropped to 71%.

Last year Mbeki quoted First National Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research, which reported that the consumer confidence index was at its highest in 25 years. The same survey released for the fourth quarter of last year showed that while consumer confidence remained at these levels, it was only so among those earning more than R4 000 a month. “Those earning less than R800 per month dropped sharply compared with the third quarter,” the survey noted.

The dampening of economic sentiment in the country in the short term has been caused by increased interest rates, the sharp depreciation of the rand since May and the country’s precarious balance of payments position, but chief economist at First National Bank, Cees Bruggemans, believes that crime could ultimately undermine the positive growth in the country.

He argued: “Economic performance ever so steadily becomes undermined, even as the bean counters keep on noticing more economic activity.”

Mbeki faces one of his toughest State of the Nation addresses next week -- the price of his denial could cost him his legacy as a strong manager and a good governor.

How to squander a legacy in three steps
Step 1. Deny Aids. In 2001, President Thabo Mbeki began to question the links between HIV and Aids. He established a presidential advisory panel comprised of the world’s most notorious dissident scientists. The dissidents have found a willing supporter in vitamin salesman, Matthias Raath, who in turn has been fondly received in South Africa. Mbeki does not say anything substantive or persuasive about HIV and Aids.

Step 2. Gun for Blair. In Davos last weekend, Mbeki fired an unusual broadside at British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair, said Mbeki, was hypocritical for scotching an investigation into allegedly corrupt arms deals involving BAE in Saudi Arabia while allowing an investigation into the South African arms deal to continue. Mbeki has refused to consider new evidence that various South Africans received over R1-billion in commissions and fees from BAE in the course of the arms deal.

Step 3. Act like the Queen. Mbeki is doing a fine impersonation of Queen Elizabeth (as played by Helen Mirren in the movie, The Queen). He is sticking to the technical detail of the fight against crime and refusing to recognise the fear gripping his nation. This is similar to the way in which the queen completely misjudged the mood of her people after the death of Princess Diana.

In his own words
HIV/Aids
2003: Mbeki told the Washington Post: “Personally, I don’t know anybody who has died of Aids. I really, honestly don’t.”
Unemployment:
2005: Questioning the figure of four million South Africans actively looking for work, Mbeki wrote on the ANC website, “This is such a large number of people that nobody could possibly have missed the millions that would be in the streets and in village paths actively looking for work in all places of employment.”
Crime:
2007: In an interview with Tim Modise on SABC television Mbeki said: “It’s not as if someone will walk here to the [television] studio in Auckland Park and get shot. That doesn’t happen and it won’t happen. Nobody can prove that the majority of the country’s 40-million to 50-million citizens think that crime is spinning out of control.”
Corruption:
2007: In the same interview when asked about corruption in the arms deal, Mbeki said the arms deal bidding process was “perfectly correct” and not affected by any corruption.

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Mbeki must admit crime crisis

Sapa 02 February 2007
President Thabo Mbeki might represent all South Africans, but only 2% of the population endorses his views on crime, Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon said on Friday.

Writing in his weekly letter, Leon said 98% of South Africans believe the president's approach and attitude towards crime are wrong.

"The president likes to claim he represents the majority of our people; that is irrefutably correct as far as his broad political mandate is concerned.

"However, it is fundamentally incorrect in respect of his approach, attitude and denial about crime ... as he appears to speak on behalf of a paltry minority of 2%."

In a recent interview with the South African Broadcasting Corporation, President Mbeki denied crime is out of control in the country.

Leon said a massive 98% of respondents had voted yes to this week's e.tv poll, which posed the question: "Is crime out of control in South Africa?"

"So with regard to the devastating spiral of violent crime, my tip for Mr Mbeki is that he frankly admit the urgency of the crisis," said Leon.

Leon also criticised Mbeki for his failure to take decisive action in instances where government leaders are alleged to be involved in corruption.

When confronted with allegations that some of South Africa's top government officials are implicated in a British police probe investigating corruption in the country's arms deal, Mbeki categorically stated that the transaction was not affected by any corruption.

"President Mbeki's foot-dragging over the arms deal only redoubles public disquiet.

"Moreover, the president has yet to release the Donen Report on South African involvement into the oil-for-food scandal, in spite of receiving it over three months ago and promising action in reply to my question in Parliament," Leon said.

On the skills-development issue, Leon said under Mbeki's leadership, the African National Congress-led government has failed to a strike a balance between the need to transform the country and that of addressing the country's skills shortage.

"While the ANC has put 'transformation' -- an insistence on racial representivity across our society -- at the heart of its agenda, it has also sought to focus on economic growth and addressing our skills capacity.

"The former policy has overwhelmed the latter: in place of a professional cadre of civil servants, well-connected ANC acolytes have been appointed, resulting in a massive capacity problem.

"This has led to the line between party and state being blurred and power being centralised in the Presidency," he said.

President Mbeki is scheduled to open Parliament with his State of the Nation address next week.

In his address, Mbeki is expected to indicate how the government intends to, among other things, tackle the problem of crime, corruption and skills shortage.

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Skills crisis dictates a shake-up

February 02 2007
South Africa needs an expertise revolution to avert the skills shortage plaguing the country, says Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

This is the only way the economy can grow.

Speaking at the official opening of Unisa's academic year on Thursday, Mlambo-Ngcuka praised the institute for its handling of the merger process and related challenges like resource management.

She said it was important to question the role that higher education played in socio-economic transformation and in the consolidation of democracy.

"As educators you undoubtedly understand the imperative for higher education to develop and generate the qualifications, competencies and skills that our nation needs in order to drive its development agenda.

"Nothing short of a skills revolution will enable us to ensure that the economy will grow at the rate that we need it to by 2010," Mlambo-Ngcuka said.

Unisa vice-chancellor and principal Professor Barney Pityana echoed Mlambo-Ngcuka's concerns and said that nothing short of a revolution "is required to break the back of the critical skills shortage, which handicaps the growth and advancement of our economy".

The deputy president also said there was a great need for maths and science teachers and lecturers and that language competence was imperative for educators and students.

"Have you ever heard a French person who can't speak French? An English person who can't speak English? So how can we ever think it is cute for a Tswana child not to be able to speak Tswana?" Mlambo-Ngcuka wanted to know.

She said changes in higher education were not only about staff composition, student intake and gender considerations, but also the identity, character and role of education in terms of socio-economic transformation.

She said the government would give schools, universities and custodians of education full support and would focus on ensuring that the number of unemployed graduates were reduced and that universities' education was in sync with the needs and skills demands of the economy.

"In my view as government we need to find a way of supporting more post-graduate students in critical areas in and out of South Africa and e-learning at all levels must be seen as a critical opportunity to leap-frog to the 21st century," she said.

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Youth Commission defends itself

Daily News: January 31, 2007
The National Youth Commission (NYC) on Tuesday sought to downplay the growing public perception that its days were numbered after a parliamentary sanctioned review of chapter nine institutions and related structures.

The NYC is actually not a chapter nine institution but has been put in the review group along the likes of the South African Human Rights Commission, the Public Protector and the Commission on Gender Equality.

Parliament appointed former education minister Kader Asmal last year as head of its ad hoc committee that is currently investigating the importance and effectiveness of these institutions.

'we have observed with concern the ongoing misinterpretation of our mandate'
The NYC was the first of these bodies to be called before the committee in parliament last week where both Asmal and MPs in the committee raised concerns relating to the commission, including apparent duplication in its work and that of another government department.

Committee members also questioned the existence of a youth desk in the office of the minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad to whom the NYC also reports.

The ANC Youth League was the first organisation last year to question the existence of the youth desk's office in the Presidency and accused Pahad of impeding youth development in the country.

But in a clear attempt not to bite the hand that feeds it, the NYC on Tuesday contended that the youth desk in Pahad's office was "not a duplication of its work". The commission's chairperson, Nobulumko Nkondlo said the commission was intending to engage the public to improve the understanding of its work.

"Having listened to the diverse opinions expressed about the commission in the aftermath of our appearance before parliament ... we have observed with concern the ongoing misinterpretation of our mandate and the commitment and expectation that are aligned to our powers and responsibilities," Nkondlo said in Johannesburg on Tuesday.

The commission's core mandate includes developing youth policies and monitoring their implementation by various government departments.

Some of its detractors have argued that such a mandate was on its own a shortcoming and have called for the introduction of an additional ministry of youth affairs with legislative powers.

But Nkondlo said that in most countries both a youth ministry and council operate alongside each other.

The commission's critics have also faulted it on numerous fronts, including its apparent failure to build political cohesion among youth formations of all political hues.

They also accused it of being an "employment agency for ANC youth leaguers", all charges rejected by Nkondlo and youth commissioners like Mothupi Modiba who attended Tuesday's briefing.

One of the commission's visible projects was the introduction of youth service programmes. And although its formation was endorsed by a multi-party parliament about 12 years ago, a number of opposition parties, including the DA and IFP, have on numerous occasions called for the commission to be disbanded.

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Mbeki spared blushes on critical peer review

The Star: January 29, 2007
Addis Ababa - President Thabo Mbeki has avoided the criticism of his fellow African leaders, after their much-anticipated review of South Africa's record on governance was postponed until July.

The African leaders were expected to consider a report on SA by the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), an African Union initiative through which leaders assess each other's political, economic and social performance.

The APRM panel, a group of eminent and neutral African experts, had drawn up a fairly critical report that other African leaders taking part in the APRM were expected to consider and possibly endorse here on Sunday.

But the leaders decided to defer consideration of the report on SA until July because it was still a "draft". They said the report did not include a programme of action to address the concerns highlighted in the report.

Public Service and Administration Minister Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, who chaired the governing council that conducted SA's peer review last year, said on Sunday SA was not responsible for the delay.

The APRM panel report, leaked to the press last month, criticised high levels of crime and corruption and the proportional representation voting system, which the panel said gave too much power to party leaders and disempowered MPs.

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Roberts primes a bomb

Saturday January 27
RONALD Suresh Roberts, the man Cape High Court judge Leslie Weinkove recently found to be “paranoid and obsessed” and a name-dropper”, is starting a magazine which he and his business partner, James Sanders, hope to have on the shelves by March.

Sanders told The Citizen yesterday he was in South Africa to set up the magazine.

Sanders told The Citizen the publication, which he and Roberts had styled Molotov Cocktail, would feature investigative stories without the “relentless negativity” toward the government and the ANC, that he claim is the hallmark of much of the South African media.

Sanders, who edited investigative magazine Noseweek for three months, said his business partner Roberts was a “fine writer”, and he had no fear his involvement in the magazine would lead people to regard Molotov Cocktail as a mouthpiece for the ANC or the state.

“Ronald is a fine writer, and when people see my track record they will realize I am not anyone’s mouthpiece,” said Sanders.

Both Sanders and Roberts are harsh critics of the official opposition.

Roberts slammed Tony Leon’s father, Judge Ramon Leon, as a “hanging judge” for passing the death sentence on Andrew Zondo – an MK operative who bombed a block of flats in Amanzimtoti.

But in court advocate Wim Trengrove mocked Roberts by pointing out he repeatedly got Zondo’s name wrong, calling him Matthew – an indication, said Trengove, that Roberts had done “no research whatsoever”.

Handing down judgment in the defamation case brought against the Sunday Times by Roberts, Judge Weinkove said Roberts “Engaged in name-dropping, and he purported to enjoy the patronage of people who occupy high positions in the corridors or power and influence.”

Among other people, Roberts claimed to have President Thabo Mbeki as one of his patrons.
The article that offended Roberts was headlined: “The Unlikeable Mr Roberts.”

In response to questions in Parliament last year, Dr Essop Pahad denied having secured a sponsorship for Roberts to write a book on the “intellectual traditions” of President Thabo Mbeki.

But during Roberts’s defamation claim, papers were lodged showing that Absa had sponsored Roberts after Pahad had approached them seeking funding for Roberts to write the book on Mbeki.

Gibson said he had asked the Speaker to set up a committee to investigate whether Pahad had lied to Parliament or not.

Asked to comment on the new magazine, Gibson said: “The more things change the more they stay the same. Dr Connie Mulder and Doctor Eschell Rhoodie would have said exactly the same.

“I think it is urgently necessary that the funding of this publication be opened for public scrutiny.

“If it turns out that the government or Dr Pahad, whether in his official or his personal capacity, is financing the magazine we will know what to expect.”

Attempts to reach Roberts failed yesterday. Sanders undertook to ask his business partner to contact The Citizen, but Roberts did not do so .

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President's office to explain job duplication

January 25 2007
Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad will be asked to explain to Parliament why a youth desk has been set up in the highest office in the land, when the National Youth Commission (NYC) is already located there.

The National Assembly's ad hoc committee to review Chapter Nine and associated institutions held a bilateral meeting with the NYC on Wednesday, and among concerns raised by MPs was the question of duplication across several fronts, including research.

Committee chairperson Kader Asmal asked why the commission wanted more funds to boost its research capacity, given that several state institutions were covering the same ground.

"Research is very expensive. Your budget is about a fifth of universities, which have 14 000 students, employ about 180 academics and ground staff. It's exactly one-fifth. Are we getting value for money in a developmental state?" he asked.

Since its establishment in 1996, the NYC has been regarded as one of the most ineffective institutions and a waste of taxpayers money by its detractors.

It was once panned by its critics as a costly employment agency for the ANC Youth League. The fact that it has yet to ensure that a national youth policy has been adopted by the cabinet, has raised eyebrows, including from within its own ranks.

Its CEO earns R558 306 a year, its chairperson R591 846, and the deputy chairperson R502 461, while the communications director's package stands at R481 098.

Its budget has grown from just under R15-million in 2002 to R21,6-million next year.

The body's commissioners and chairperson were grilled on Wednesday and were hard pressed to convince sceptical MPs that the NYC was effective and was providing value for money, or was actually engaged in issues that were relevant to youth.

There were probing questions from the multi-party committee, including from the ANC's Mike Masutha, who wanted to know why a youth desk existed side by side with the NYC in the presidency.

Commissioners were loath to reply, saying it was a question best answered by the presidency.

Asmal said the committee, which had not heard from the presidency, would write and ask for clarity.

However, he told the NYC: "On the other hand, be careful. You can't do Pontius Pilate acts all the time."

Asmal noted that the NYC was mandated to "promote uniformity of approach of all organs of state".

"If there are two structures in your own home, is it a semi-detached relation in your own home? Are you divorced? We will take this up with the minister in the presidency," said Asmal.

The review of the Chapter Nine institutions and related associations was the first since they were established. Bodies under review include the SA Human Rights Commission, the Public Protector, the Commission on Gender Equality, and the Auditor-General.

The committee will report to the National Assembly no later than June 30.

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Youth commission admits it is highly ineffective

24 January 2007
The South African Youth Commission has accepted as accurate a damning report by a former employee describing the organisation as highly ineffective and lacking policy, measurable objectives and data on youth practices.

"These are some of the weaknesses that we are currently addressing," commission chairperson Nomi Nkondlo on Wednesday told a Parliamentary committee reviewing the effectiveness, efficiency and appropriateness of state-funded (chapter nine) bodies.

Asked by the ad-hoc committee on review of chapter and associated institutions whether her response could be interpreted as saying the report was accurate, Nkondlo replied: "Yes."

While she believed the commission’s role was to lobby government departments and ensure they prioritised youth issues in their programmes, review committee chairperson Kader Asmal disagreed.

Its mandate was much more broader than that, he said.

"Your function is not to simply advise government ... you must implement measures and review the policies and practices of government departments," he said.

Implementing measures in response to challenges such as the addiction of young people to drugs and alcohol should be one of the commission’s core functions, said Asmal.

However, Nkondlo blamed government departments for not prioritising the youth in their programmes.

"Some of the departments refused to cooperate with the commission," she said, but could not produce any documentation to back her claim.

Despite what appears to be a duplication of functions and a R3-million under-expenditure, the commission needed more money.

Nkondlo said additional funds were still needed to beef up the organisation's policy and research units.

"We are currently aligning our structure to our mandate, and as a result we needed more money to strengthen our research and policy capacity," she said.

Asmal, however, questioned the rationale behind setting up a research unit when there were several research institutions in the country.

The Treasury has increased the commission's R20-million budget by nearly 8%, saying the organisation had indicated it now has additional obligations.

Another area of concern to the committee was the "youth desks" in government departments.

It emerged that their functions were similar to those of the commission.

"You are located within the Presidency and yet there is another youth desk in the Presidency. Is that not a duplication?" asked Asmal.

Nkondlo told the committee to direct the question to Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad.

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Which peers will Mbeki listen to?

26 January 2007
All eyes are on President Thabo Mbeki as he steps up to the podium at the African Union heads of state summit in Addis Ababa this weekend: will he present a whitewashed peer review report or the warts and all assessment of the panel of leading Africans who have made their own assessment?

The panel of eminent persons was led by Nigerian economist Adebayo Adedeje and included the former Reserve Bank governor, Chris Stals, and Graça Machel.

The eminent persons report, leaked last December, said crime was a key challenge facing South Africa and it also dealt extensively with poverty and inequality, land reform, HIV/Aids and violence against women and children.

But government’s report to the AU is far more sanguine and limited in its assessment of the state. Commentators say Mbeki will choose this option.

The government has refused to comment on the eminent persons’ report until after the president’s presentation on Sunday, beyond saying that its peer review plan of action is not set in stone.

“He [Mbeki] must not miss this opportunity to give leadership,” said Hassan Lorgat of the NGO coalition, Sangoco, which sat on the APRM’s governing council. “If he fails, he fails African institutions and he will fail the whole of civil society, much of which is already cynical.”

The 300-page eminent persons’ report discusses a range of issues which were muted in the final report.

South Africa’s governing council, led by the Minister of Public Service and Administration, Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, was accused by civil society of whitewashing the country’s final report under the guise of “editing” the manuscript. It is unclear exactly who made the controversial changes.

Civil society organisations say the eminent persons’ report gives a more accurate summary of the national temperature taken through an extensive process of consultation in the course of 2005 and 2006.

Lorgat said Mbeki would set an example for other African countries embarking on the peer review process if he took the “bold step” of engaging the eminent persons’ report.

Civil society has also criticised the criterion used in the programme of action submitted to the peer review secretariat last year.

The document says that it will only address problems where “a discernible impact can be made through limited and specific improvement interventions”.

In other words, South Africa wants a limited and achievable plan of action.

It adds: “Major national priorities such as crime are not addressed in the programme as a result of the application of this criterion. They are primarily caused by factors other than ineffective governance and would be best addressed by more appropriate interventions.”

Critics argue that this drastically limits the scope of the programme of action.

The programme also says that the state’s internal process and performance must be “internally addressed and already appear in the government programmes of action or in departmental strategic plans”.

The document excludes these suggestions because they do not meet the “partnership requirement” -- meaning that only proposals requiring action by more than one social partner are included. “Partners” is a vague term that includes the government, business, labour and NGOs.

Cosatu’s deputy general secretary, Bheki Ntshalintshali, said the government could do nothing on its own, as “everything needs to engage stakeholders”.

Ineffective governance was not the only issue. However, Ntshalintshali emphasised that the government still had a responsibility to address matters such as crime “as the government”.

Cosatu was one of several civil society groups involved in the peer review which wrote to Fraser-Moleketi asking for more time to consider the eminent persons’ report late last year. It has not received a response.

Ntshalintshali said the government’s failure to engage civil society over the report undermined the core principles of participation and inclusion. “It is no longer the peer review process as we understood it to be,” he said. Its exclusion might discourage civil society in other countries from trying to be heard in peer reviews.

Fraser-Moleketi’s spokesperson, Clayson Monyela, said the eminent persons’ report would only become public after Mbeki’s address this weekend.

Fraser-Moleketi would then hold a press conference to discuss concerns relating to the report and the programme of action.

How it works

• The country establishes a “focal point” to oversee the review. SA’s is run by Public Service and Administration minister Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi.
• A governing council comprised of civil society and government is established. It sets the parameters and plans for review.
• Hearings are held around the country and submissions are heard. Four organisations drafted technical reports. The governing council drafts a final country report.
• An eminent persons panel gets this report and it makes its own findings.
• The country which has been reviewed has to make a presentation to the AU heads of state. This is what Mbeki will do on Sunday.

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Why Mbeki wants a third term

22 January 2007
Whoever wants to be the next president of the African National Congress will probably have to go through president Thabo Mbeki, who has been asked by the party’s most influential province to guide the 95-year-old ANC towards its centenary years.

Senior members of the Eastern Cape provincial executive committee (PEC) of the ANC are convinced that this “son of the soil will never say no to a mandate by the ANC”. An Eastern Cape member of the ANC’s national executive committee said: “It will not be tough convincing Mbeki to stand again as ANC president despite the fact that he is an unpredictable person …”

This week, members of the PEC who spoke to the Mail & Guardian hinted that a delegation from the province would soon ask Mbeki if he would be available for the job.

Eastern Cape provincial secretary Siphato Handi said Mbeki’s candidacy would be at the heart of discussions at the two-day provincial lekgotla at the end of this month. Mbeki is prohibited by the South African Constitution from seeking a third term in government but the ANC’s constitution is silent on the number of terms a party leader can serve in office. Mbeki’s mentor, Oliver Tambo, held the fort for three decades.

But why would Mbeki consider staying at the helm of Africa’s oldest liberation movement?

Firstly, he makes clear his commitment to the ANC and the struggle. “I was born into the struggle,” he once said.

A member of the Eastern Cape executive committee said: “As the son of ANC stalwart Govan Mbeki and a protégé of the great OR Tambo, Mbeki would not like to leave the ANC in tatters, weakened by dysfunctional branches.”

Having devoted his two terms in office to the geopolitics of the African continent and the economic affairs of the world, Mbeki would like another chance to transform the ANC from a liberation movement into a sophisticated ruling party in charge of a world-class economy.

Secondly, Mbeki’s grip on party power would be his only means of putting an end to the controversial tradition that automatically renders the leader of the ANC the head of state.

Mbeki hopes to prove that the two offices -- ANC president and state president -- can co-exist harmoniously, debunking claims that this would create two centres of power.

It is also no secret that Mbeki’s preferred candidates for the presidency of the country -- Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Cyril Ramaphosa, Trevor Manuel, Terror Lekota and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma -- stand little chance in a toe-to-toe face-off against Jacob Zuma. So for Mbeki to elect the guardian of his legacy, he has to win “round one” of the succession battle by squaring up to and defeating Zuma come December 2007.

Thirdly, Mbeki believes the country is ready for its first female president, and taking a third term as party president would ensure that he would be able to influence the appointment of his successor and shield the guardian of his legacy from the venom of African traditionalists within the ANC and the broad alliance, who may be opposed to the idea of a woman as president.

With the clear backing of the Eastern Cape, Mbeki is a strong candidate who is expected to rely on the support of the Western Cape, Limpopo, North West and Gauteng.

Political commentator William Mervin Gumede said the provinces would be very important in deciding the next president during the conference. “Every province counts, no matter how small. Therefore there is going to be a frantic scramble to win over the smaller provinces such as Mpumalanga, Western Cape and Northern Cape … This is even more important since the big provinces, such as KZN and Eastern Cape, are not united behind one candidate.”

Gumede outlines his picture of provincial allegiances: “Gauteng and North West are definitely behind Mbeki. The Western Cape is now more and more behind Mbeki, after they were split in the past between Zuma and Mbeki.

“The Northern Cape is definitely behind Mbeki. Although the National Union of Mineworkers … is very strong in the province, and Zuma could potentially mobilise them to help campaign.

“Mpumalanga is still split between Mbeki and Zuma, although Mbeki currently has the edge, because the premier is an Mbeki-ite and has been mobilising. Zuma has a lot of support in Mpumalanga, especially among the youth, Communist Party and the traditional leaders who have been very disgruntled there for many years.

“The Free State appears to be split. Although again there is a strong NUM presence there … Northern Province is also split, I think, although the widespread poverty and very rural population in the province could be exploited by Zuma, who really operates best in the context of rural dwellers and the more traditionally orientated.

“KZN at this moment is definitely pro-Zuma. S’bu Ndebele’s public conversion under pressure to the Zuma camp is an indication [of this trend]. Ndebele in his heart of hearts is not really a Zuma supporter, and if it comes to a secret ballot I’m sure he would vote for Mbeki -- even in his sleep,” said Gumede.

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Church plans prayer service for Zuma

Saturday January 27

JACOB Zuma is seeking God. A massive prayer service for the ANC deputy president is planned for Sunday at the Rivers of Living Waters Ministry in Vereeniging.

In a year where Zuma’s hopes of playing a significant part in politics are pinned on him being elected ANC president at the end-of-year conference in December, Zuma may need divine intervention.

He is likely to be recharged with corruption in the coming months.

The service is planned in conjunction with the Friends of Jacob Zuma Trust in Gauteng.

Trust spokesman Kaizer Mohau said the service would provide moral support to Zuma ... and bolster his coffers.

When asked if forgiveness would be sought for Zuma’s much- publicised personal strife, including admitting having had sex with the HIV-positive daughter of one of his struggle comrades, Pastor George Lebusa said no.

“All we want is for him to come here and enjoy the House of the Lord,” said Lebusa. “His past mistakes are not at issue here.

“He needs our prayer, similar to everyone else who has sinned in the past, and has their own things in the closet”.

Lebusa said Zuma needed the prayers of ordinary people, asordinary people could not judge another on the mistakes they may have made in the past.

Zuma has been severely criticised for his lifestyle and attitude, because of the many controversial statements he made during his appearance on a charge of rape in the Johannesburg High Court last year, and his statements concerning gay men.

Lebusa said Zuma was not the first high-profile leader to visit the church for a special prayer service.

They hosted Thabo Mbeki in 1998, when he was still the country’s Deputy President, current Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka in 2006, and a host of other politicians – including African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) leader Reverend Kenneth Meshoe.

“Our doors are open to everyone, and we will pray for anyone and everyone... we hope he (Zuma) will leave the service feeling replenished”.

A business luncheon to further raise funds for Zuma, and for the church’s project in Evaton, outside Vereeniging, will also be held after the prayer service.

The trust has continued raising funds for Zuma’s legal expenses but has refused to divulge how much money it has received to date.

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President Mbeki has values bull by the udder

Fri, 19 Jan 2007
The Sunday Times front page of 14th January 2007 saw President Thabo Mbeki blame colonialism and apartheid for South African greed. Unless (the usual political refuge) he was quoted ‘out of context’, what he said (inter alia) was: ‘….the pursuit of personal wealth to the exclusion of all else is primarily a consequence of the social and economic relations that developed under colonialism and apartheid.’ I read a few days later that the Prez (on Tim Modise’s radio show) thinks crime isn’t out of control but that we all suffer from misperceptions regarding the extent of it. Until then, I would have been amazed by his colonialism statement - but no longer. His well-established forte is clearly denial.

During the apartheid ‘struggle’, people were united against a common enemy – or so they thought, anyhow. In those days there were still faint vestiges of Ubuntu (African Humanism) left in black South African culture. At its best it echoed sentiments like ‘No African child will be an orphan so long as one African woman lives.’ ‘It takes a village to raise a child’. ‘I am my brother’s keeper’. In between lay, ‘you scratch my back I’ll scratch yours’. At its worst, it’s degenerated into ‘every man for himself and God for us all.’ I’m afraid the latter version currently holds sway in South Africa.

If that ‘caring for your neighbour’, altruistic stuff was real and an integral part of the value system of black South Africans, it would have amplified once the oppressor’s jackboot was lifted. But it didn’t do that. It all but evaporated entirely.

Luminaries in the values evolution field, like the late Professor Clare Graves, Professor Don Beck and others, have proven that values can be and often are distorted when there’s oppression. They typically revert to a lower, more self-centred, self-preservation orientated level of functioning. But in an environment of ‘freedom’ the intrinsic, actual values will have the luxury of coming to the fore. That gives the lie to the President’s assertion.

Can President Mbeki legitimately claim that colonialism and apartheid influences (for which read ‘nasty white people’) are responsible for the rampant materialism, greed, selfishness and lack of concern for the poor and downtrodden in (primarily, given the demographics) black South African culture? I think not. He’s fallen into the same trap as many cultural, ethnic or religious groups. They will continue to blame for millennia, not their own paucity of good values, work ethic, morals, innovation or energy, but the legacy of their past. Which means I should be able to take refuge behind and excuse any unacceptable behaviour on my part because I had an alcoholic father. That’s plain stupid. Then so is President Mbeki’s thesis.

Convicted fraudster Tony Yengeni emerges from prison and loudly proclaims that the problem in South Africa is poverty and the fact that the bulk of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a tiny percentage of South Africans. What the heck does that have to do with his designer-suited criminal behaviour? He’s a fine one to be shouting the odds on caring for the poor when he’s the default author of the term ‘a Yengeni’ when people refer to expensive Mercedes MPVs.

To cap these ANC rants, erstwhile Parliamentary Speaker Frene Ginwala was quoted in the Star newspaper of January 17th 2007. She shot off her mouth saying that business people are corrupting politicians. Indeed? I sat in the Centurion home of an MP – at that stage theoretically earning R 11 000 p.m. I was there with someone else to ask for legit networking assistance with a project. The Chinese silk-upholstered designer stainless steel couch on which we sat, probably cost more than all the furniture in my home put together. The artworks on the walls were original oils and acrylics. This highly placed ANC official gobsmacked the female businesswoman with me when he quite blatantly and without batting an eyelid told us he’d want a significant cut of any ensuing revenues and that his wife would need to be ‘put on the board’ of our company. No kidding. So Frene dear, are you and your political cronies squeaky clean? Never asked for a kick-back? Sure? Really, really sure?

People, regardless of ethnicity or their past, need to take a careful look at their chosen level of social responsibility, morals, ethics and spirituality. You can’t continue to blame others or circumstances for how you live your life. Well, you can of course, but all that says about you is that you’re consciously ‘playing victim’ and you’re unwilling to accept responsibility and accountability for your own future. This doesn’t say a lot (of good, anyhow) about you.

If we were all to blame someone or some other ethnic group, or some set of circumstances, for who and what we are, and use it as an excuse not to evolve and grow up, we’d have a global pandemic of social dysfunction. What a pity that someone of Mbeki’s alleged intellectual brightness can perpetuate chronic claptrap such as ‘the colonial past is to blame’.

I perceive a subtle but escalating trend in South Africa. All that is, was and ever will be generated by white people is evil. I don’t think so. Had it not been for colonisation, many African cities would be non-existent. Simple fact. Or rampant tribalism might still hold sway. Well, heck, it still does in most of Africa and it isn’t too well-concealed in South Africa right now.

Was it all so bad Mr President? No good out of it, whatsoever? No legacy of any merit? In my opinion, you set a bad, misleading and highly divisive example, sir. Just as you did on HIV and AIDS.

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Presidency not involved in book

18 January 2007 06:56
The Presidency on Wednesday night described a claim by the Democratic Alliance (DA) that it had sponsored author Ronald Suresh Roberts to write a book about President Thabo Mbeki as an attempt to tarnish the integrity of the Presidency.

On Wednesday the DA accused Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad of not giving "an honest answer" to a parliamentary question.

The question was whether the presidency had commissioned a R1-million corporate sponsorship for Roberts to write a book about President Thabo Mbeki.

In a written reply, in November 2004, Pahad said it had not.

Responding on Wednesday night, the Presidency, through its spokesperson Mukoni Ratshitanga said: "The fact of the matter is that the Presidency is not a party to the said contract."

The DA's Gareth Morgan said documents lodged with the Cape High Court, as part of Roberts' recent defamation case against Johncom Media, confirmed the presidency had in fact commissioned such a sponsorship for Roberts to write a book about Mbeki.

"The Minister in the Presidency appears not to have provided an honest answer to a parliamentary question. He seems to have misled Parliament and to have deliberately omitted information and details contrary to the answer he provided," Morgan said in a statement.

Morgan said the DA was in possession of all the documents, and from them it was "quite clear" the Presidency -- and Pahad in particular -- was intricately involved in facilitating, constructing and finalising the entire deal.

"The documents lodged include a series of e-mails exchanged between Absa [who sponsored the book], Mr Roberts and the Presidency, and also contain the actual contract between Mr Roberts, Absa and the Presidency.

Morgan said he would raise the matter with Speaker of Parliament, Baleka Mbete and submit a follow-up question to Pahad.

Ratshitanga provided a background of the "DA's attempt to tarnish the integrity of both Dr Pahad and the Presidency".

"In the latter part of 2004, Mr GR Morgan asked the minister in the Presidency the following":

1. Whether the Presidency secured R1,2-million in corporate sponsorship in respect of a book to be written ... on the President's intellectual traditions. The minister replied: "No."
2. Whether the Presidency entered into a contract for the writing of the book. The minister replied: "No."
3. Whether any office bearers in the Presidency were charged with securing corporate sponsorship for the book. The minister replied: "No such task was performed."

Ratshitanga concluded: "In this respect the question enquired as to whether the Presidency was involved in this matter, and correctly the minister responded by unequivocally saying 'no, the Presidency was not involved'.

"After Dr Essop Pahad was approached with the idea of writing a book on the President, he agreed that the idea was sound. He then, in his personal capacity, agreed to assist in facilitating the financing of such a book. It is in this context that he approached Dr Bosman at Absa."

Since Pahad made the approach in his personal capacity, the Presidency was not involved in the matter at all, Ratshitanga said.

On October 3 2004, the Sunday Times published a profile of Roberts, entitled The unlikeable Mr Roberts, by Chris Barron. Roberts then sued the paper for defamation, but a High Court judge early in January ruled that any damage to his reputation was self-inflicted.

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ANC denies censoring members

South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) swiftly reacted to purported media reports that it has ordered its branches to carefully choose the attendees of the Saturday rally in Witbank to avoid having ANC members embarrassing the President.

It was reported that ANC had asked its branches to provide the names and identity numbers of their members to "protect President Thabo Mbeki from unruly party members" during his address at the 95th anniversary rally of the party, which is expected to be attended by over 20,000 people.

The ANC security measure was said to be aimed at preventing Mr Mbeki from being booed by loyalists of Jacob Zuma, who was sacked as the Deputy President but still has a large and radicalised fellowship. But the party's spokesman, Paul Mbenyane, described the reports as not only unfounded but also "irresponsible and malicious".

For security reasons, he said, only invited guests - journalist, business people and others - would be asked about their ID numbers. Mr Mbenyane added that this exempts ANC members and ordinary people.

Ahead of the rally, there have been reports of national intelligence agents being deployed in Witbank, purposely to counter any security threats in advance. The ANC mouthpiece confirmed that security would be tight at the rally but that it is meant to protect everyone.

ANC officials in Johannesburg today issued a statement saying the Witbank rally is "open to all members of the public who wish to attend, and there is no requirement that they should submit their ID numbers".

For "purposes of planning", ANC members who would use buses of the party however had been required to submit their names to their branches.

It is also said that ANC officials have been sick and tired with the recent mistreatment of President Mbeki at hands of some people during a commemorative rally of an ANC stalwart, Moses Mabhida in Pietermarizburg.

ANC on Saturday clocks 95 years. Formed in the apartheid era, the ANC has been ruling South Africa since 1994 when the yokes of white minority rule, discrimination and racism were broken. With only 12 years in office, the ANC has secured absolute majority in parliament but the party has been confronted with a lot of internal shackles during the past two years.

In December, the party is expected to hold congress to choose a successor to President Mbeki, who received the leadership baton from the former President Nelson Mandela. The leadership debate has opened several months ahead of the convocation.

The two most popular candidates to take over from President Mbeki are current South African Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka - who could become the country's first female leader - and her predecessor, Mr Zuma. While Mr Zuma has faced both corruption and rape charges - exposed to the nation in embarrassing court sessions - the former deputy still counts on many militant followers in the party.

Ms Mlambo-Ngcuka, a more moderate and low-profiled politician, is believed to have the full confidence of Mr Mbeki. This has again contributed to the President's decreased popularity among ANC radicals.

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